Tad's Soaring Predictor Lives!!

Or more like weather education. I've posted information I use to help figure out the day. Often I'll also post graphics with explanations of "why" the weather guessers think the day is good.

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AlC
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Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 9:02 am

Tad's Soaring Predictor Lives!!

Post by AlC » Thu Dec 06, 2007 12:20 pm

Hi all:

Tad Hurst created a Soaring Predictor that used to run at home.san.rr.com/tadhurst. He let it go back in March when he gave up flying (at least for now). Spencer Mathews has been running a copy up at UC Davis and now I'm running another copy at www.soaringpredictor.info (thanks to some help from Tad). So far I just have the southern California sites up. But Spencer asked if I could try and get the rest going as he will be away from his machine over the XMas break.

Anyway, Tad's code lives! I've dropped a note to the webmaster so the link on the weather info page can be updated.

- Alan

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Dizzy
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Post by Dizzy » Thu Dec 06, 2007 4:35 pm

Alan,
Is it a big deal for you to add more sites? I'm interesting in following:

Calabasas 34.134575 -118.687689
Saddle Peak 34.076058 -118.658831
Chiff Peak 34.502467 -119.168578
Sky Port 34.480786 -119.684908
Garlock 35.418900 -117.695100
Blackhawk 34.344300 -116.820000
Slick Rock 36.140200 -118.796000
Horseshoe 36.472708 -118.115092

Thanks,
Alex

AlC
Posts: 83
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More sites coming soon

Post by AlC » Thu Dec 06, 2007 5:40 pm

Dizzy:

Tad provided the control files for several more sets of sites. I plan to work on them this weekend. If these are still missing I'll follow up for more info. There are only 4 or 5 items required to add a site and you've given me lat/long.

Alan

AlC
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Initial Site

Post by AlC » Sat Dec 08, 2007 12:57 pm

The initial version of the Santa Barbara sites are up here: http://mysite.verizon.net/res7zhry/html ... dictor.htm

I'll be better integrating this into the site (probably a pick list on the initial page) and making the skew_t plots available as time allows.

The list does not have all the sites you were interested in. I need the zipcode, launch and lz elevations (feet), and lat/log (which I have) to add sites. There is a tuning parameter that can be adjusted if the calculations come in consistently high or low.

- Alan

AlC
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New & Improved

Post by AlC » Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:09 pm

Major upgrade to the site to add other sets of sites, including Santa Barbara sites, that are linked to other soundings. Skew-t's also up and running on the new sites.

- Alan

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Dizzy
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Post by Dizzy » Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:51 pm

Alan,
Two sites from my list already included, so info for the missing:

Name, Lat, Lon, launch (feet), LZ (feet), zipcode
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Calabasas 34.134575 -118.687689 1640 770 91302
Saddle Peak 34.076058 -118.658831 2770 0 90264
Garlock 35.418766 -117.850633 4770 1970 93555
Blackhawk 34.344300 -116.820000 6280 3700 92314
Slick Rock 36.184800 -118.727000 5075 1140 93265
Horseshoe 36.472708 -118.115092 9085 3640 93545
------------------------------------------------------------------

PS: Lat/Lon for Garlock and Slick Rock was incorrect in my previous post.

AlC
Posts: 83
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More sites now!

Post by AlC » Mon Dec 10, 2007 7:04 pm

Alex:

I've included the sites in the Santa Barbara predictor and uploaded revised forecasts. They all have a "zero" tuning parameter at the moment so they may need some adjustment if they are consistently over or under predicted.

Alan

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Dizzy
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Post by Dizzy » Mon Dec 10, 2007 10:54 pm

Current values looks too high. Could you adjust "tuning parameter", so during the night hours parameter "Above Launch (ft)" must be zero. It will make sense.

There is another error. Launch Altitude < LZ Altitude for all new sites, they must be swapped.

Thanks,
Alex

AlC
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Corrected

Post by AlC » Tue Dec 11, 2007 6:07 am

Alex:

Getting the LZ and launch elevations into the right spots (you were correct, they were reversed) seems to have corrected both issues.

- Alan

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bricksfly
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Excellent Resource!!

Post by bricksfly » Thu Jun 19, 2008 8:05 am

:D These are great snapshots of the possible soaring conditions! thanks for reviving this resource. I was using a link from the USHGA web-site but enjoy this new one that give links to many other areas... Or will as you continue to update all the data. Excellent. thanks again. BB
Bill

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