Predictions for Friday again

Or more like weather education. I've posted information I use to help figure out the day. Often I'll also post graphics with explanations of "why" the weather guessers think the day is good.

Moderator: Chip

Post Reply
User avatar
Chip
Site Admin
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:20 pm
Location: Sylmar, CA
Contact:

Predictions for Friday again

Post by Chip » Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:08 am

Yes, I read and hear the reports of possible rain coming this weekend, but I wanted to point out that the ETA (NAM) model BlipMap is predicting VERY good conditions coming this Friday.

It's a bit early to tell and the conditions are really going to be decided by the approaching Canadian Upper Low.
National Weather Service Forecast Discussion wrote:NAM (North American Model) AND GFS (Global Forecast System) CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS THE MORE INLAND OF THE TWO. THE ECMWF (Europeon Center for Medium range Weather Forecast) ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THIS IDEA (more inland) AND IN FACT, I NOTICED THE 18Z NAM WAS ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THIS HAS RATHER LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR WEATHER AS A MORE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH MORE SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH PRETTY LOW RAIN AMOUNTS AND VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS TODAY I`M INCLINED TO GO WITH THE MORE INLAND TRACK FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
BlipMap data is suggesting altitudes approaching 7k and thermal velocities in the 500'/min range. I would equate this to mean the Canadian Upper Low will move inland instead of traveling south over the water. Tomorrow's solution will give us some better insight.

User avatar
Chip
Site Admin
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:20 pm
Location: Sylmar, CA
Contact:

Conditions good come and get it!

Post by Chip » Fri Feb 17, 2006 7:31 am

Yesterday I called Ron Wiener in the AM about the condtions for Thursday and Friday (16th & 17th of Feb). About 20 pilots flew and had really good easy flights at cloudbase. Ron said he didn't need any input on that call because it looked that good to him from the start. All pilots talked about the FREEZING conditions at cloudbase around 7100'. It's likely to be that high today and maybe slightly higher (7500'). Larry Chamblee noted that this was the first time he was actually able to fly a cloud street. It's likely to street up over the entire mountain range today again.

Condions are forecast to remain good through today and possibly deteriorate over night with SNOW actually in the forecast.

BlipMap shows a convergence all the way to San Diego today, so all along the mountain range should see very good soaring conditions. What is accomplished with this convergence will be interesting. As long as you dress warm today shouldn't be missed.

Oops wrong on this one. windy and cold conditions kept us from flying. It was likely flyable but rain in the vicinity and windy cold conditions didn't look all that appealing. Sorry, I was one of the unlucky ones today too!

Post Reply